About This Project

What This Is

WWIII Probability Monitor is an independent, data-driven project that applies game theory to estimate the probability of a major global conflict. The model draws on publicly available data — military spending trends, AI economic impact estimates, governance indicators, and social stability measures — to identify conditions under which the most powerful actors in a given country become economically incentivized to pursue conflict over productive investment.

The probability figure on the homepage represents the share of simulated scenarios, under current conditions, in which a major conflict begins within the stated timeframe.

Why It Was Built

Every major war in modern history followed a recognizable sequence: sustained economic disruption, elite capture of political institutions, erosion of international guardrails, and escalating conflict as a political outlet. This project was built to make those patterns legible to ordinary people — investors, voters, students, and citizens — before the sequence completes.

The goal is not alarm, but informed awareness. A population that can see these dynamics early is better positioned to advocate against them.

Who We Are

This site is maintained by Global Conflict Monitor, an independent analyst collective focused on geopolitical risk modeling. We have no affiliation with any government, political party, or defense organization. All data sources and model assumptions are publicly documented on the Model page.

How to Use This Site

The homepage shows the current probability estimate and the countries the model flags as past the conflict-seeking threshold. The Model page explains the full methodology, all variables, and includes an interactive simulator so you can run your own scenarios.

This site is updated as input data changes.

Disclaimer

This site is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not a prediction that any specific country, person, or institution will initiate conflict. Model outputs are probabilistic estimates based on simplified assumptions and should not be used as the sole basis for financial, legal, or personal decisions.