Deep-dive into Game Theory Prediction Model
Educational scenario analysis based on official, public data with transparent assumptions. It is not a forecast of certain war and should not be read as a claim that any named country, institution, or person will initiate conflict.
How the game theory conflict prediction model works
The model asks a simple question: In each country, when are conditions in place that the most powerful people are economically incentivized to encourage war and geopolitical conflict?
It covers all UN member states starting in 2026 and projects forward one year at a time for up to 30 years. Each year, the model tracks:
- AI rollout impact on productivity
- White-collar labor slack
- Governance weakness and elite capture
- Social pressure on governmental change
- Worker coordination capacity
- Ultra wealthy insulation from geopolitical conflicts
- The cost or constraint on harmful escalation
A country reaches the "war" threshold when the most powerful people no longer seek to produce new goods, but instead engage in conflict-seeking behavior as part of a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium. Reaching the threshold does not mean a country will start a war — it means the country is modeled as more likely to amplify an existing crisis under stress.
The model in plain terms
Each country has specific variables that we care about with specific impacts:
AI is used to estimate each country's variables for every given year simulated in the model.
Interactive country risk simulator
Adjust the sliders below to see how the game theory model responds for a hypothetical country. These variables are scaled from 0 to 1 as model indices not percentages. The model checks whether productive investment remains the dominant strategy for the most powerful economic actors (the ultra-wealthy) — or whether conflict-seeking becomes rational.
| Worker adapts (A) | Workers resist (R) | |
|---|---|---|
| Invest productively (M) | — | — |
| Seek conflict benefit (W) | — | — |
Higher values are better for the ultra wealthy. When W payoffs exceed M payoffs, conflict-seeking becomes rational.
What "war" threshold countries and "high-risk areas" mean
"War" threshold countries are those with pure strategy equilibrium where the ultra wealthy (those in power) have economic incentives to encourage war or geopolitical conflicts (W). "War" threshold countries are better understood as possible conflict amplifiers due to the state fragility, conflict exposure, labor stress, governance weakness, elite insulation, and/or geopolitical pressure in the country. In other words, the near-term risk still comes mainly from existing wars, ceasefire failures, maritime chokepoints, alliance obligations, and spillovers across energy, food, migration, and cyber systems.
High-risk areas are areas where "war" threshold countries exist. Simply put, they are regions where one or more countries with incentives to stir up conflicts exist and should be closely monitored going forward.
High-risk areas: countries already at the "war" threshold in 2026
One of the clearest high-risk belts — combines active or recent conflict, regional rivalry, energy routes, outside-power involvement, and high spillover potential.
The largest concentration of war-threshold countries in the model. Local instability can spread through migration, commodities, armed spillovers, governance breakdown, and external security involvement.
Domestic instability here can interact with major trade flows, refugee pressures, and nearby power competition.
A high-consequence case — even a localized escalation could involve alliance systems and major-power response.
Risk here is less about direct great-power confrontation and more about state weakness, migration spillovers, economic disruption, and regional instability.
Additional countries with later "war" thresholds
The model also shows when productive arrangements start to lose their hold in larger economies. These are not predictions of war — they signal rising structural stress.
| Country | Model threshold year |
|---|---|
| Egypt | 2030 |
| Russia | 2033 |
| Türkiye | 2038 |
| Tunisia | 2043 |
| Eswatini | 2044 |
| Ukraine | 2049 |
| United States | 2049 |
| South Africa | 2056 |
Where wider conflict is most likely to spread from
The most likely pathway is not a brand-new global war appearing suddenly. It is the widening of an existing regional crisis.
- An existing war or near-war crisis stays active
- Nearby states or outside powers become more directly involved
- Shipping or energy chokepoints are disrupted
- Food, fuel, cyber, or migration pressures spread outward
- A second or third theater stays active at the same time
That is how separate crises can become one connected conflict system.
Important limitations
- The 18% figure is a judgment-based composite estimate, not an observed statistic or market price.
- The game theory model is not a direct war-forecasting tool. It is better at identifying where resilience is thinning than at predicting exact dates or belligerents.
- Short-horizon risk in 2026–2029 is driven mainly by live theaters, ceasefire fragility, alliance dynamics, chokepoints, and commodity shocks.
- This is a stylized educational model, not an accusation against any named country, institution, or person.
Data sources
Cross-country model inputs: IMF AI Preparedness Index, UN E-Government Development Index, World Bank World Development Indicators, World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, and SIPRI military expenditure data where available.
U.S.-Specific: BLS Employment Situation for March 2026, BLS CPI for February 2026, Federal Reserve notes on AI adoption and on the international role of the dollar, IMF AI Preparedness Index, and Transparency International's CPI 2025 release for the United States.
Conflict-context update: Reuters and UN reporting on the April 2026 Middle East crisis, UCDP's 2025 update on 2024 conflict counts, and SIPRI's 2025 fact sheet on 2024 military expenditure.
- IMF AI Preparedness Index
- Federal Reserve, Monitoring AI Adoption in the US Economy, April 3, 2026
- BLS, Employment Situation, March 2026
- BLS, Consumer Price Index Summary, February 2026
- Transparency International, United States CPI 2025
- Federal Reserve, The International Role of the U.S. Dollar – 2025 Edition
- IMF COFER data brief, March 27, 2026
- UCDP / Uppsala University, Sharp increase in conflicts and wars, June 11, 2025
- SIPRI, Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2024
- Reuters, UN envoy in Iran to support durable end to conflict, April 8, 2026